Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Market Volatility Amid Mid-Term Elections and AI Trade Shifts

Episode: “What the Hell Just Happened?! (EP. 490)”

The episode covers recent market volatility, the impact of the mid-term elections, the role of hedge funds, and the AI trade's influence on the stock market.

Key points

1. The NASDAQ 100 and other major indices experienced a sharp decline, attributed to a combination of factors including election outcomes, AI trade dynamics, and market sentiment shifts.This highlights the unpredictable nature of the market and the complex interplay of factors influencing investor behavior.
2. The hosts reflect on the rapid shifts in market narratives, noting that the market is influenced by a wide range of factors, including political events and investor behavior.This underscores the importance of understanding the broader context in which market movements occur.
3. The discussion highlights the impact of the mid-term elections, with a focus on how the results may have influenced market sentiment and the potential for a shift in political power affecting the economy and corporate strategies.This illustrates the potential for political events to have a significant impact on market dynamics.
4. The hosts explore the role of hedge funds in market volatility, suggesting that excessive leverage and the over-leveraged positions of some hedge funds may have contributed to the recent market downturn.This highlights the risks associated with excessive leverage in the financial markets.
5. The episode touches on the impact of the AI trade on the market, with a focus on the performance of semiconductor stocks and the broader tech sector, noting that these stocks have been heavily impacted by recent market movements.This underscores the importance of the AI trade in shaping market trends and investor sentiment.
6. The hosts discuss the broader implications of the AI trade, including the potential for a shift in investor sentiment and the possibility of a market correction or rotation.This highlights the potential for significant changes in market dynamics as the AI trade evolves.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• The hosts suggest that the AI trade may be entering a period of correction or rotation, with potential for a shift in investor sentiment.
• The hosts express the view that the market is currently in a state of flux, with rapid shifts in sentiment and the potential for continued volatility.

Tech and AI Trade Remain Strong Despite Scrutiny and Leadership Uncertainty

Episode: “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026”

Tech stocks, particularly those tied to AI, are performing well despite concerns about leadership changes at NVIDIA and increased regulatory scrutiny. The AI trade is seen as resilient, with potential catalysts like the Anthropic IPO. However, NVIDIA faces political and regulatory challenges that could impact its short-term performance.

Key points

1. CoreWeave's results boosted tech stocks, and the AI trade is still viewed as strong.This suggests continued investor confidence in AI-related companies despite some concerns about the data center build-out.
2. The Anthropic IPO is seen as a potential catalyst for the AI trade.A successful IPO could increase investor confidence and potentially lead to higher valuations for AI-related companies.
3. NVIDIA faces congressional scrutiny over potential ties to a Chinese spy and export control issues.This highlights the growing political and regulatory challenges facing key tech companies, especially those involved in national security.
4. NVIDIA's succession planning is unclear, and there is concern about the impact of Jensen Huang's potential departure.This raises questions about NVIDIA's ability to maintain its leadership position in the AI sector without a clear plan for succession.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Julian Emanuel (Evercore): The AI theme has much further to run, and the market is not overly concerned about Jensen Wang stepping down from NVIDIA.
• Julian Emanuel: The Anthropic IPO is a potential catalyst for the AI trade and could lead to higher valuations and retail participation.
• Jay (analyst): The risk of Jensen Wang being removed from his role at NVIDIA is significant, and it could change the company's trajectory.
• Jay: NVIDIA's lack of clear succession planning could be a problem if Jensen Wang leaves, unlike Apple's smooth transition with Tim Cook.

Words to know

AI trade

Investment in companies involved in artificial intelligence, such as those developing AI chips or software, which is seen as a growing sector in the tech industry.e.g. Companies like NVIDIA and AMD are part of the AI trade.

succession planning

A process by which a company prepares for the transition of leadership, ensuring that there is a clear plan for who will take over key roles if current leaders leave.e.g. NVIDIA is criticized for not having a clear succession plan for its CEO.

AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return

Episode: “AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return”

AI stocks rose as investors anticipated higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, reflecting renewed confidence in the economy and tech sector.

Key points

1. AI stocks experienced a rebound.This indicates renewed investor confidence in the AI sector.
2. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates.Higher interest rates can signal a stronger economy and influence investment trends.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Amanda Leinem, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, noted that the credit market is adapting to the increased issuance by hyperscalers, expecting ongoing spread widening to allow this debt to clear at a higher discount.
• Gotham Mukunda, lecturer at the Yale School of Management, suggested that the scandal involving NVIDIA could lead to significant investigations and legal consequences, impacting the company's future.

Goldman Sachs' Nicole Pullen-Ross on Sports Valuations, Media Rights, and Institutional Capital

Episode: “Playing for Scale: The Future of Sports Investing”

Nicole Pullen-Ross of Goldman Sachs explains how surging media rights contracts and institutional capital are transforming sports franchises into valuable global assets. Live sports remain one of the few guaranteed places to reach massive live audiences, driving team valuations across major leagues, women's sports, and college athletics. Rising infrastructure costs are also prompting owners to build tech-enabled, multi-use venue ecosystems that generate revenue year-round.

Key points

1. Global media rights revenue grew 41% from 2020 to reach $57.8 billion in 2025, and is expected to hit $67 billion in 2026, with streaming services contributing 20% of that growth.Media rights serve as the core contractual revenue driver that backs rising franchise valuations and draws institutional money into sports.
2. Private equity transactions in sports rose from 50 in 2018 to 192 in 2025, accelerated by major leagues like the NFL permitting institutional ownership in 2024.Institutional capital provides team owners with flexible growth capital for expansion, facility development, and player investments.
3. Facility ownership strongly influences team valuations, demonstrated by the WNBA's Valkyries being valued at $850 million while the Atlanta Dream (playing in a 3,500-seat venue) is valued at $280 million.Permanent venues unlock larger live audience capacities and ancillary real estate income streams, boosting enterprise value.
4. College sports legal settlements and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules are making universities operate like professional franchises, prompting private equity firms to offer lines of credit for sports program expansion.College athletic departments are creating new corporate debt and equity structures to compete for top talent and upgrade facilities.
5. Average stadium construction costs have climbed to $1.7 billion, leading owners to rely on AI and personalized technology to operate multi-purpose entertainment districts that function year-round.Diversifying beyond game-day ticket sales helps owners offset high debt financing costs and elevated construction expenses.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Nicole Pullen-Ross (Goldman Sachs) projects global media rights revenues will reach $67 billion in 2026.
• Nicole Pullen-Ross (Goldman Sachs) expects permanent arena access to remain a critical factor in raising valuations for women's sports teams.
• Nicole Pullen-Ross (Goldman Sachs) anticipates that college sports NIL policies will permanently alter how athletic departments raise debt and private equity capital.
• Nicole Pullen-Ross (Goldman Sachs) believes high-upside growth equity opportunities for investors lie in international markets, European football, F1, women's sports, and emerging sports like rugby or flag football.

Words to know

Media Rights

Contracts granting broadcast and streaming networks the exclusive right to televise live sporting events.e.g. Streaming services now represent about 20% of media rights growth.

Institutional Capital

Funds managed by professional organizations, such as pension funds or private equity firms, rather than individual retail investors.e.g. Institutional capital flooded into major sports after leagues allowed private equity investments.

Private Equity

Investment capital raised from private sources to buy direct equity stakes in operating businesses or assets.e.g. Private equity firms recorded 192 sports transactions in 2025.

Growth Equity

Capital invested in growing companies to expand operations, taking minority stakes without heavy leverage.e.g. Investors seeking higher returns look for growth equity stakes in emerging sports leagues.

Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL)

Legal policy allowing amateur college athletes to earn money from commercial endorsements and brand deals.e.g. NIL rules let college athletes monetize their personal brands while playing.

Discussion on Fame, Money, and Identity in Comedy

Episode: “What Now? with Trevor Noah | Michael Che: The Unspoken Rules of Comedy”

Michael Che discusses the relationship between fame, money, and identity as a Black comedian in America, highlighting the importance of visibility and the unspoken rules of comedy.

Key points

1. Michael Che believes that Black people are naturally community-oriented and that money can provide freedom for Black individuals in America.This reflects on the social and economic challenges faced by Black people and how financial independence can influence personal and public perception.
2. Che suggests that fame can bridge the gap of ignorance and allow people to see him as an individual, not just as part of a group.This highlights the power of fame in changing public perception and challenging stereotypes.
3. Che discusses the idea of 'signaling' through appearance, such as wearing expensive items, to show prominence and avoid discrimination.This reflects on how appearance can be used as a tool to navigate societal biases and gain respect.
4. Che shares a story about Michael B. Jordan and how he dealt with the pressure of being a Black man in a role that was previously associated with white actors.This illustrates the challenges of breaking barriers in entertainment and the importance of representation.
5. Che and Trevor Noah discuss the mutual support they provided each other in their careers, emphasizing the importance of having more Black voices in comedy and media.This highlights the significance of community and solidarity in overcoming systemic barriers in the entertainment industry.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Michael Che believes that money can provide freedom for Black people in America (Michael Che).
• Che suggests that fame can bridge the gap of ignorance and allow people to see him as an individual (Michael Che).
• Che believes that Black people often use appearance to signal prominence and avoid discrimination (Michael Che).
• Che reflects on the importance of having more Black voices in comedy and media (Michael Che and Trevor Noah).

Hedge fund multi-strats suffer rare October losses; option gamma accelerates stock market sell-off

Episode: “The Perfect Storm That Clobbered Hedge Funds”

Major multi-strategy hedge funds suffered rare simultaneous losses in October as crowded positions across AI equities, bonds, and macro trades unravelled together. Market technicals, including options dealer negative gamma and vol-control selling, subsequently amplified a sharp post-election market sell-off as narratives shifted around AI infrastructure spending.

Key points

1. Top multi-strategy hedge funds including Millennium (-2.3%), Balyasny, ExodusPoint, and Point72 lost money simultaneously in October despite their multi-pod, uncorrelated risk design.Institutional investors pay hedge funds management fees to protect capital during downturns; synchronized losses reveal hidden correlation across seemingly independent strategies.
2. AI concentration hit specialized funds heavily, with single-strategy fund Vara dropping 33% in October and macro fund Kirkoswald down 6.4%.Extremely high concentration in winning momentum themes creates severe downside tail risk when market sentiment turns.
3. Multi-strategy funds utilize strict centralized risk limits where a 5% loss often halves a portfolio manager's capital and further loss leads to liquidation.Ruthless risk limits protect fund platforms overall but force rapid selling in downturns, exacerbating broader market volatility.
4. PivotalPath reported that 10 major hedge firms controlled $2.2 trillion in leveraged gross assets, with $350 billion backing crowded trades.High leverage on identical trades means small price declines trigger large forced liquidations across the industry.
5. A sharp Thursday market sell-off was magnified by options dealers sitting in negative gamma, requiring them to sell into market weakness to stay hedged.Market structure and derivative positioning can drive severe price declines independent of fundamental economic news.
6. Investor sentiment pivoted from viewing high tech company capital expenditure as a growth driver to worrying about free cash flow, borrowing costs, and power grid constraints.Changes in fundamental narrative can reprice entire sectors even when underlying operational demand remains high.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Nishant Kumar (Bloomberg News) believes the final two months of the year will be extremely difficult for hedge funds to take risk because many key portfolio managers have been fired or are on non-compete leave.
• Michael Ball (Bloomberg News) expects that the AI market story needs several months to stabilize as regulatory concerns and local power infrastructure bottlenecks are worked out.
• Michael Ball (Bloomberg News) thinks compute demand growth remains firmly intact on an upward curve despite negative market noise surrounding specialized cloud providers.

Words to know

Multi-strategy fund

A hedge fund that allocates capital across dozens of independent trading teams (pods) to diversify across different markets and asset classes.e.g. Millennium runs hundreds of distinct pods inside one hedge fund structure.

Negative gamma

A position in options market-making where dealers must sell underlying stocks as prices fall and buy as prices rise, accelerating market swings.e.g. Dealers in negative gamma were forced to sell equities aggressively on Thursday morning, deepening the drop.

De-grossing

Reducing total portfolio size by closing out both long (buy) and short (sell) bets to trim overall exposure.e.g. Volatile markets forced several systematic funds into rapid de-grossing.

Neoclouds

Specialized cloud computing infrastructure providers built specifically to rent out high-performance AI processors.e.g. Neocloud firms like CoreWeave and IREN borrow heavily to buy specialized chips and power data centers.

Anthropic S-1 reveals $800B compute commitments and dual-class governance ahead of $2T IPO

Episode: “What Anthropic’s IPO Filing Actually Says”

Anthropic filed its S-1 prospectus seeking an IPO valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. While the company achieved a real operating profit in the second quarter, its filing reveals over $800 billion in long-term compute commitments and an unusual corporate governance structure that gives founders and an independent trust total control over public shareholders.

Key points

1. Anthropic reported an $80.7 billion net loss for the first six months of the year, but over $72 billion of that loss was an accounting non-cash adjustment required when convertible debt instruments were revalued as the company's valuation rose.Headline accounting losses can mislead investors; Anthropic's actual cash burn from operations in the first half was under $700 million, down significantly from $2 billion in the same period last year.
2. Footnote disclosures disclose that Anthropic has entered into over $800 billion in future purchase commitments and chip leases with companies like Amazon, Broadcom, and SpaceX through 2045.These off-balance-sheet commitments shift Anthropic from an asset-light software business into a capital-heavy industrial firm with massive long-term fixed cash outflows.
3. Anthropic's sequential revenue growth fell from 147% in Q2 to roughly 45% in Q3 according to private investor data, coinciding with corporate clients cutting back on high token usage.A sharp deceleration in revenue growth right before an IPO makes traditional growth-extrapolation valuation models volatile and unreliable.
4. Anthropic is structured as a Public Benefit Corporation where seven co-founders hold 50.1% of voting power via special non-dilutable stock, while an independent Long-Term Benefit Trust appoints a majority of board seats to prioritize human safety over shareholder profit.Public shareholders receive no meaningful corporate governance rights or voting power, leaving them unable to sue if management prioritizes safety spending over profitability.
5. Big tech firms display circular valuation relationships, as Amazon and Google invest in Anthropic while Anthropic simultaneously pays them hundreds of billions for cloud compute.Interlocking investments make individual tech company valuations interdependent, obscuring true organic revenue and market demand across the sector.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Matt Levine noted that early convertible debt mark-to-market losses create a paradoxical accounting situation where a rising corporate valuation produces larger reported net losses.
• Steve Eisman argued on the Prof G Markets podcast that Anthropic's rapid early-year growth was driven by temporary corporate 'token maxing' that sharply slowed down in Q3.
• Paul Kudrowski stated on the Hidden Forces podcast that software engineering was an ideal early market for AI, but expanding into general white-collar office work will be harder.
• Robert Armstrong of the FT argued that if AI technology presents true existential risks, it cannot realistically function as an ordinary publicly traded corporation.
• John Foley noted in the FT that attempting to value fast-growing AI companies based on historical financial metrics is ineffective due to extreme compound variance.
• Aswath Damodaran pointed out that tech sector valuations have become interdependent because companies actively invest cash directly into their own operational suppliers and partners.

Words to know

S-1 Filing

The initial registration document required by the US SEC for any company planning to issue public shares.e.g. Anthropic filed a 240,000-word S-1 filing detailing its financials and risk factors before its IPO.

Public Benefit Corporation (PBC)

A legal corporate entity balance structure permitted to balance financial profits against specific social or environmental missions.e.g. Anthropic operates as a PBC to legally prioritize human safety over maximizing shareholder returns.

Convertible Debt

A loan instrument that can be converted into standard equity shares at a future date under specific conditions.e.g. Early funding from Google and Amazon came via convertible debt that revalued as Anthropic's equity rose.

Mark-to-Market

An accounting method that measures the value of an asset or liability based on its current market price rather than historical cost.e.g. Revaluing convertible instruments to market values forced Anthropic to record a non-cash mark-to-market loss.

Take-or-Pay Commitment

A contractual provision requiring a buyer to pay for a set amount of goods or services regardless of whether they actually use them.e.g. Anthropic agreed to $110 billion in take-or-pay compute commitments with Amazon.

North Korea steals $6.3 billion from Binance in historic crypto heist

Episode: “How North Korea Pulled Off the Biggest Heist in History”

North Korean state hackers executed the largest theft in history, taking roughly $6.3 billion from crypto exchange Binance by exploiting human security weaknesses and smart contract rules. Stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle stepped in to freeze $2.4 billion of the stolen funds, while Binance promised to cover all customer losses despite facing $4.7 billion in withdrawals.

Key points

1. North Korea's cyber unit, Trader Trader, stole roughly $6.3 billion from Binance, taking most of it within the first 30 minutes of the attack.This represents the largest single heist in history, surpassing both conventional bank robberies and previous cryptocurrency breaches.
2. Hackers breached Binance's signing system via a months-long social engineering effort involving fake job interviews, malware, and Ethereum feature EIP-7702 to conduct blind signing.The breach succeeded not by breaking underlying blockchain cryptography, but by exploiting human error and automated signing permissions within corporate software.
3. Centralized stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle froze approximately $2.4 billion of the stolen tokens shortly after the attack.This highlights how major crypto networks rely on centralized intermediaries capable of acting like traditional banks to halt or reverse transactions during crises.
4. Binance froze withdrawals until Sunday morning, during which customers pulled out $4.7 billion (about 3% of assets), and pledged to cover all remaining losses.While exchange liability terms limited legal obligation to pay, large trading revenue allowed Binance to absorb losses to protect corporate reputation and customer retention.
5. Binance kept its emergency reserve fund in Bitcoin, which dropped by about $100 million right when the market reacted to the hack.Matching asset reserves directly to liabilities can fail if market panic lowers the market value of the collateral asset during a crisis.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Elliptic told the FT that the hack was almost certainly the largest theft of any kind in human history.
• Alexander Shirtcliff (lawyer at Edwin Coe) noted that Binance's terms of service limit customer liability, meaning its pledge to cover losses is not legally binding.
• Matt Levine stated that stablecoin issuers using blacklist functions results in centralized intermediaries performing a quasi-law enforcement function.
• Tom Robinson (Elliptic) expects stolen funds to eventually be sold off to over-the-counter brokers who ask few questions.
• Kelly Yee (Talos) noted that the market treated the hack as an operational shock rather than a systemic failure.

Words to know

hot wallet

An internet-connected crypto wallet that automatically processes instant user deposits and withdrawals without manual approval.e.g. Binance held $2.5 billion in an online hot wallet to payout automatic Ethereum requests.

blind signing

The act of authorizing a digital transaction or smart contract without reading or verifying the underlying code.e.g. Binance's automated system engaged in blind signing when approving the hacker's payload.

stablecoin

A cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by pegging to a fiat currency like the US dollar.e.g. Tether and Circle issued stablecoins that were frozen following the attack.

reverse solicitation

A legal scenario where a customer seeks out a foreign financial firm entirely on their own initiative without active marketing by the firm.e.g. Binance cited reverse solicitation to explain why European residents continued to use its exchange.

natural hedge

A risk management tactic where an entity matches assets and liabilities in the same currency or asset type.e.g. Binance used Bitcoin to back customer Bitcoin obligations as a natural hedge.

How bodegas led to the Yemeni coffeehouse explosion

Episode: “How bodegas led to the Yemeni coffeehouse explosion”

Yemeni immigrants in the U.S. have a long history of running bodegas. A new generation is using that experience to open Yemeni coffeehouses that serve as community spaces and cater to late-night needs. The success of these coffeehouses is partly due to the strong social networks and entrepreneurship traditions within the Yemeni community.

Key points

1. Yemeni immigrants have been running bodegas in the U.S. for decades, often starting with informal loans from family and friends.This experience with small businesses and community support laid the foundation for the later success of Yemeni coffeehouses.
2. Yemeni coffeehouses are popular among Muslim and Arab American communities, offering a family-friendly, late-night space that feels different from traditional coffee shops.These coffeehouses fill a niche by providing a welcoming environment for families and communities that previously lacked such a space.
3. Hakeem Soleimani, a Yemeni-American entrepreneur, opened one of the first Yemeni coffeehouses in Brooklyn in 2019. His father ran a bodega nearby, and Hakeem used his family's connections and experience to start his coffee business.Hakeem's story shows how the skills and networks developed in bodegas can be applied to new ventures like coffeehouses.
4. Yemeni Americans have a strong tradition of entrepreneurship, and many have built successful chains of coffeehouses across the U.S.This reflects a broader trend of immigrant communities specializing in certain industries, often due to social and economic factors.
5. Economists like Bill Kerr have studied why some immigrant groups cluster in specific industries. Factors like smaller population size and strong social ties within the community contribute to this clustering.This helps explain why Yemeni immigrants, among others, have been particularly successful in running bodegas and now coffeehouses.
6. Hakeem faced challenges in importing coffee from Yemen due to the country's civil war and economic instability, but he found ways to work around these obstacles.This shows the persistence and resourcefulness required to build a business in a new industry, even with difficult external conditions.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Bill Kerr suggests that immigrant groups with strong social ties and smaller populations are more likely to cluster in specific industries.
• Hakeem Soleimani believes that the success of Yemeni coffeehouses is due to the demand for late-night spaces and the community's long history with coffee.

NVIDIA's stock plummets amid scandal, raising questions about its future and the broader AI sector.

Episode: “Nvidia Has Lost $1.5 Trillion — Is The Worst Still To Come?”

Nvidia's stock is down more than 30% since the scandal involving CEO Jensen Huang broke, erasing nearly half a trillion dollars of market value. October inflation came in hotter than expected, pushing up bets on a December Fed rate hike, and AI valuations are cooling: Anthropic is now targeting a $1.3 trillion IPO valuation.

Key points

1. NVIDIA's stock has dropped over 30% from its October highs due to a scandal involving its CEO, Jensen Huang.The scandal has raised concerns about potential legal and regulatory risks, including possible export restrictions and the impact of Jensen Huang's potential departure.
2. Up to 20% of NVIDIA's Asia sales may have been funneled to China, according to Gil Luria.This could pose a risk to the company's business if the investigation finds wrongdoing.
3. NVIDIA's stock is now trading at a lower multiple than traditional consumer staples like Walmart and Coca-Cola.This raises questions about whether it's a buying opportunity, though Gil Luria suggests that NVIDIA carries higher risks compared to companies like Broadcom and AMD.
4. CoreWeave's stock had a brief rebound after earnings, but the company faces significant challenges, including a negative return on investment.The risk of NVIDIA bailing them out has diminished due to the uncertainty around Jensen Huang's leadership.
5. Inflation in October exceeded expectations, with consumer prices rising 0.4%.The two-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.78%, signaling expectations of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
6. Anthropic's IPO valuation has dropped from $2 trillion to $1.3 trillion.This aligns with broader market trends where AI stocks like NVIDIA and others have seen significant declines in valuation.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Gil Luria estimates that up to 20% of NVIDIA's Asia sales may have been funneled to China, which could pose a risk to the company's business if the investigation finds wrongdoing.
• Gil Luria suggests that while there may be a buying opportunity in the semiconductor sector, NVIDIA carries higher risks compared to companies like Broadcom and AMD.
• Justin Wolfers expressed a hawkish view on inflation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to implement additional rate hikes.

Words to know

PE ratio

Price-to-earnings ratio, a valuation metric that compares a company's stock price to its earnings per share. A lower PE ratio suggests a stock is undervalued relative to its earnings potential, while a higher PE ratio suggests it is overvalued or expected to grow rapidly in the future. (PE ratio is also known as the price multiple.)e.g. NVIDIA is trading at a forward PE ratio of 12, which is lower than companies like Walmart and Coca-Cola.

AI ecosystem

A network of companies, technologies, and services that support the development and application of artificial intelligence. This includes hardware manufacturers, software developers, and service providers that enable AI innovation and deployment.e.g. Jensen Huang has been instrumental in building the AI ecosystem, which includes companies like NVIDIA, OpenAI, and others.

NVIDIA's Jensen Huang Scandal and the New Republican Leadership in the House

Episode: “Across the Aisle in 2027: Working with Rep. Jim Jordan 11/11/26”

The episode covers the ongoing controversy surrounding NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, the political implications of the 2026 midterm elections, and the potential for congressional oversight and investigations into the Trump administration.

Key points

1. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is under investigation following allegations of a relationship with a suspected Chinese spy.The scandal has raised concerns about national security risks related to NVIDIA's chip sales and has led to a significant decline in the company's stock price.
2. Rep. Jim Jordan has been elected as the new Republican leader in the House, signaling a shift toward a more activist and unified Republican base.Jordan's leadership may influence the Republican strategy in the upcoming years, particularly in relation to the Trump administration and potential conflicts with the Democratic majority.
3. Jensen Huang's net worth has dropped by over $50 billion, with a significant portion of his shares held in trusts with his wife, Lori.This structure may provide some stability for NVIDIA shareholders in the event of a potential divorce or legal battle, as the shares are held in trusts rather than directly by Huang.
4. House Democratic Caucus Chair Peter Aguilar emphasizes the need for accountability and lowering costs for Americans, while expressing a willingness to work with Republicans on bipartisan issues.Aguilar's comments highlight the potential for collaboration between the two parties on key issues such as healthcare and gas prices, while also emphasizing the need for oversight of the Trump administration.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Former Congressman Patrick McHenry suggests that the election of Jim Jordan as the new Republican leader signals a shift toward a more activist and unified Republican base, which could influence the party's strategy in the coming years.
• Wealth editor Robert Frank notes that Jensen Huang's complex web of trusts may provide some stability for NVIDIA shareholders in the event of a potential divorce or legal battle.
• House Democratic Caucus Chair Peter Aguilar emphasizes the need for accountability and lowering costs for Americans, while expressing a willingness to work with Republicans on bipartisan issues.

The stock market and the economy are different, but they are more closely linked than ever before.

Episode: “So … is the stock market the economy now?”

The stock market is not the economy, but it's more connected to it now. The economy is split into 'new era' and 'old era' parts, and the stock market is dominated by tech companies. A 'Walmart recession signal' suggests parts of the economy are weak, and there are concerns about an AI bubble and its potential impact.

Key points

1. The stock market is not the economy, but they are more connected now.The stock market reflects the value of publicly traded companies, while the economy includes all economic activity.
2. The U.S. economy is split into 'new era' (AI, software) and 'old era' (traditional industries) parts.New era GDP has grown 13% annually, while old era GDP has grown just 1% annually.
3. The 'Walmart recession signal' suggests parts of the economy are weak.Walmart's stock has outperformed luxury brands and the S&P 500, which may indicate economic stress for lower-income consumers.
4. The stock market is heavily concentrated in tech stocks.The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 now make up 40% of its total market value, and all but one are tech companies. Ten years ago the top 10 were just 16%, spread across different industries.
5. There are concerns about an 'AI bubble' and its potential impact.A report warns of risks such as the heavy concentration of the stock market in tech stocks and circular financing deals between tech companies.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Jim Paulson says the U.S. economy is split into two parts and that the current stock market reflects this split.
• Jim Paulson believes the 'Walmart recession signal' suggests parts of the economy have been weak for some time.
• Maya Jenkins and her co-authors warn of an 'AI bubble' and its potential impact on the financial system.

Tech Stocks Rebound Even As OpenAI Logs Heavy Losses

Episode: “Tech Stocks Rebound Even As OpenAI Logs Heavy Losses”

OpenAI's revenue has grown significantly, but it's still losing money. Tech stocks are rising due to better-than-expected results from CoreWeave and investments in AI companies. Trump's deal for Russian diesel to the U.S. has stalled.

Key points

1. OpenAI's revenue almost doubled to $10 billion in Q3, but it's still losing money.This shows that despite revenue growth, OpenAI is struggling to be profitable compared to its rival Anthropic.
2. Anthropic's revenue was $17 billion in Q3, and its losses are much narrower than OpenAI's.This highlights the competitive gap between OpenAI and Anthropic, with Anthropic being more financially stable.
3. Tech stocks are rising due to better-than-expected results from CoreWeave and investments in AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.This suggests that investors are becoming more confident in the AI sector despite some companies still losing money.
4. TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) says its board backed plans to invest $500 million each in Anthropic and OpenAI, showing strong confidence in the AI sector.This investment from a major chipmaker indicates that the AI industry is seen as a key growth area.
5. President Trump's deal for Russian diesel to the U.S. has stalled because U.S. oil companies are unwilling to buy the fuel due to international sanctions and lack of a diesel supply shortage.This shows that geopolitical and economic factors can impact even high-profile deals.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Joe Stoner: 'This market needed a shot in the arm. And it's got one from several sources.'
• JP Morgan analysts: 'CoreWeave has answered investors' key concern about its ability to fund itself.'
• Analysts: 'Overlapping roles among AI suppliers, customers, and investors create complex dependencies.'
• Thomas Massey: 'The impeachment effort isn't over and said he plans to force another War Powers vote before leaving office.'

Words to know

IPO

Initial Public Offering - the process of a private company offering its shares to the public for the first time, allowing it to raise capital from public investors and become a publicly traded company on a stock exchange. (IPOs are often used by companies to raise money for expansion, research, or other business needs.)e.g. Anthropic is expected to have an IPO next week.

revenue

The total amount of money a company receives from its business activities, such as sales of goods or services. (Revenue is a key indicator of a company's financial health and growth.)e.g. OpenAI's revenue almost doubled to $10 billion in the third quarter.

operating losses

A situation where a company's expenses exceed its revenue, resulting in a negative profit. (Operating losses can be a sign that a company is not generating enough income to cover its costs.)e.g. OpenAI is still logging heavy operating losses despite its revenue growth.

AI

Artificial Intelligence - the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think, learn, and make decisions. (AI is used in various applications, including chatbots, self-driving cars, and data analysis.)e.g. OpenAI and Anthropic are both companies working on AI technologies.

AI Selloff Deepens, Tech Earnings Disappoint, Binance Hack

Episode: “What’s News in Markets: AI Selloff Deepens, Tech Earnings Disappoint, Binance Hack”

AI companies face capital challenges, tech earnings disappointed investors, and Binance suffered a major hack, all contributing to a volatile week in markets.

Key points

1. AI companies are struggling to raise capital due to high interest rates.This makes it harder for AI firms to fund expensive infrastructure projects.
2. Alphabet and Intel had their worst trading days ever due to disappointing earnings.This highlights investor concerns about the profitability of major tech companies.
3. Binance was hacked, with $6.3 billion stolen, leading to a drop in crypto-related stocks.This shows the risks associated with digital currency exchanges and the broader crypto market.

Opinions & forecasts views, not facts

• Investors are asking when AI investments will become profitable, indicating skepticism about near-term returns.
• The threat of U.S. military strikes against Iran has raised concerns about potential instability in energy markets.

Words to know

AI

Artificial Intelligence, a branch of computer science that enables machines to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, and decision-making.e.g. Companies like Anthropic and Alphabet are investing heavily in AI.

Market cap

The total value of a company's outstanding shares, calculated by multiplying the number of shares by the current stock price.e.g. Alphabet lost $497 billion in market cap after its earnings report.

Hacker

A person who gains unauthorized access to a computer system or network, often with the intent to steal data or cause damage.e.g. North Korean state-sponsored hackers were behind the Binance hack.